TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF TYPHOID FEVER CASES IN ABIA STATE FROM 2001-2010

 
This research work is concerned with the time series analysis on the rate of typhoid fever cases in Abia state from 2001-2010, with Abaia state university teaching hospital Aba as a case study. This survey was carried out using time series analysis to ascertain whether there is a significant increase in the seasonal variation in the reported cases of typhoid fever. Finally, following the inferences drawn from the data collected for the survey, it was discovered that there was a strong seasonal variation in some quarter of the period under review, which can be attributed to some certain factors like raining season. Prevention and control measures were recommended for fighting/combating this problem on the rate of typhoid fever cases in our society.
1.1   BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Typhoid Fever is a world wide disease which creates a very serious public healthy problem. In many under develop countries; the word health organization (WHO) estimated that about one person out of ever hundred (100) is suffering from typhoid fever. The also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem which incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5-19 years old. Typhoid fever is a systematic disease caused by dissemination of salmonella typhoid or salmonella paratyphoid mainly characterized by fever was called because of it’s common similarity to typhus. It was clearly defined pathologically as a unique disease of it’s own, it is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. The bacteria then perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages.
According to medial dictionary (Budelka, K.G. 1971), which reveals the typhoid fever as an infection which is usually spread by contamination of food, milk or water supply with salmonella typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or by faulty personal hygiene. Symptomless carries harbouring the germ in the gall bladder and excreting it in their stools are the main sources of  out breaks of disease in this country. The average incubation period is 10-14 days. A progressive fedric illness marks the onset of disease which develops as the germ invades tymphoid tissues, including that of the small intestine (peyers patches) to profuse diarrhocal (pea soup) stools which may become frankly haemorrhagic, ultimate recovery usually begins at the end of the third week. A rose coloured rash may appear on the upper abdomen and back at the end of the first week.
1.2  STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Over the last decade, there has been alarming increase in the rate of recorded cases of typhoid fever in our various hospitals especially in Abia state. This has led to a very serious questions on the minds of the citizenry in particular and the professionals in our medical field in general. Ordinary, since typhoid fever is generally associated with a lot of symptoms such as fever headache, cough etc. these however make it a complicated disease with a very serious economic and social effect on the victims. This study seeks to find the prevalent rate of typhoid fever and suggest possible solutions in preventing it.
1.3  AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The following are the aims and objectives of this study.
1. To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.
2. To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
3.  To predict rate of prevalent in future.
1.4  SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This project is significant in the sense that health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care. This research work will be of great significance in the following ways:
-  This study will help the hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the particular months or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid fever in order to carryout enlightenment campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease.
-  If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be on increase, it will enable the hospital management to put intensify effort towards applying more preventive measures in order to combat the disease.
1.5  STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis I
Ho:  There is no significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
Hi:  There is significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
Hypothesis II

Ho:  There is no seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
Hi:  There is seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
1.6  SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This study is designed to cover Aba, the commercial city of Abia state. Aba is a city and a big trading center in Abia state. It will also cover a period of ten (10) years (2001-2010).
1.7  LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The major limitation to this research work was basically on the collection of data and information is regarded as confidential, besides there was inadequate asses to the data due to reluctant attitude of the hospital medical record department to release the data on time as well as the limited available literature which the researcher was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.